HHM - Nascar (2024)

[He Hate Me]

The 2024 Nascar season begins this weekend with the Busch Light Clash.

I expect to have Draftkings available to me sometime in March after changes in the NC laws.

Since I will have more options with DK, I will be betting larger amounts this year.

There are no matchups out for the Clash yet, but I did bet this:

0.15 unit on Austin Dillon to win +3300 (BetUS)

I will be looking to bet on Austin Dillon, Kyle Busch, Ryan Preece, and maybe Larson (I doubt I will find good matchups/odds with Larson) in matchups, groups, etc.

 

[He Hate Me]

Looking forward to the 2024, some storylines that I will be following/betting:

Ty Gibbs looks ready to take a leap. I will be betting on him more this year.

Legacy moving from Chevy to Toyota. I did not understand this at first with Jimmie Johnson as a owner, they moved from Chevy but I have read that they were getting Tier 3 or 3rd level support from Chevy so they will be getting more help under Toyota. I don't know if that will pay off this year but it should in the long run. We should find out quickly as Erik Jones is good on the early tracks on the schedule.

Was excited about Hocevar for this season after what he did filling in for Gragson at the end of last season, but he is driving the Spire #77 car which is a back-of-the-pack car.

I don't know what Kaulig is doing with Hemric as their only full-time driver, probably a good fade. At least they will have Allmendinger driving their other car on road courses and superspeedways.

 

[He Hate Me]

I played these, each at their low limit max:

0.25 units:
Reddick +105 over Keselowski (BetUS)
Bubba +105 over Briscoe (BetUS)
Preece -115 over Briscoe (BetUS)

The forecast is for rain. They may move the race to another day, they may race on rain tires if the track is wet and it is not raining, they may end up canceling it, no one knows.

 

[CPA-hole]

Moved it up to tonight at 5:00 pacific time

 

[He Hate Me]

Moved it up to tonight at 5:00 pacific time

That takes the weather questions marks out of the race. Now the race will be more predictable, well as predictable as a race that had 16 cautions last year can be.

No one has any matchups out yet, except BetUS. They raised the limit some, so I was able to add to my 3 matchups to 0.5 units each.

Maybe we will get heat race matchups and the last chance matchups.

 

[CPA-hole]

That takes the weather questions marks out of the race. Now the race will be more predictable, well as predictable as a race that had 16 cautions last year can be.

No one has any matchups out yet, except BetUS. They raised the limit some, so I was able to add to my 3 matchups to 0.5 units each.

Maybe we will get heat race matchups and the last chance matchups.

No heat races. Qualifying will go on fastest times in practice. Only one guaranteed a spot right now is Blaney.

 

[CPA-hole]

22 fastest times. 23rd will be driver with most points from last year that didn't make the fastest 22.

 

[He Hate Me]

The limits on these were slight raised so I added a .25 unit to each:

0.5 units:
Reddick +105 over Keselowski (BetUS)
Bubba +105 over Briscoe (BetUS)
Preece -115 over Briscoe (BetUS)

Looking to bet:
Toyota
Reddick
Bubba
Austin Dillon
Kyle Busch
Preece

Looking to fade:
Buescher - he has not qualified for the main event yet.

I may add to these after practice.

 

[He Hate Me]

22 fastest times. 23rd will be driver with most points from last year that didn't make the fastest 22.

No last chance race either?

 

[CPA-hole]

No last chance race either?

No.

 

[He Hate Me]

No.

Damn, so there will not be much time between practice/qualifying and the race which makes is less likely that books put up matchups

 

[CPA-hole]

Damn, so there will not be much time between practice/qualifying and the race which makes is less likely that books put up matchups

That seems unlikely.

 

[He Hate Me]

NASCAR estimates 30 minutes between the final qualifying session and the start of the Clash.

Here are the Groups, but they will not really matter since it will just be the top 22 overall times. Otherwise Group 2 is stacked.

 

[He Hate Me]

BetUS has taken down their matchups. I doubt we get any in that short 30-minute window.

 

[He Hate Me]

The Toyota cars look fast, except one of the 2 that I bet on, Bubba.

Ford looks slow, except Logano and Briscoe, who I bet against twice.

RFK looks like trash again, at least I bet against Keselowski. We will see if they can work on their cars before the final practice, but both look to be in trouble and may not make the race.

 

[He Hate Me]

The limits on these were slight raised so I added a .25 unit to each:

0.5 units:
Reddick +105 over Keselowski (BetUS)
Bubba +105 over Briscoe (BetUS)
Preece -115 over Briscoe (BetUS)

Looking to bet:
Toyota
Reddick
Bubba
Austin Dillon
Kyle Busch
Preece

Looking to fade:
Buescher - he has not qualified for the main event yet.

I may add to these after practice.

-1.73 units

I guess Bubba wrecked or was wrecked on the last lap. Fox did not show it.

 

[He Hate Me]

I put in a few bets at extremely low limits when looking through the current matchups, Top 5s, and Top 10s.

0.25 unit:
LaJoie - Top 10 +290 (Bovada)
Allmendinger - Top 10 +325 (Bovada)

0.125 unit:
Bowman -115 over Briscoe (Bovada)
Ragan +1000 - Top 5 (BetUS)

Spire put a lot of money into their team this offseason and LaJoie's best tracks are superspeedways.
Allmendinger does better at superspeedways than you realize.
Ragan has to make the field so it is risky to bet him before the Twin races. He is in RFK's 3rd car so speed should not be an issue assuming he races in.

Hopefully, they will raise limits before the Twin races on Thursday and qualifying on Wednesday.
Bowman, Byron, and Larson are the most likely cars to set on the pole so I would assume their odds will be worse. I plan to bet more on Bowman and fade both Byron and Larson in matchups, but not until after the Twin races and practice. Probably gonna bet on Bubba against both Byron and Larson.

Also looking to fade Briscoe, Reddick, and Jones and bet on Kyle Busch.

 

[CPA-hole]

-1.73 units

I guess Bubba wrecked or was wrecked on the last lap. Fox did not show it.

Fox's whole coverage was an abomination. Bubba got spun and basically did a uturn and drove back to the garage. Fox missed everything.

 

[CPA-hole]

I put in a few bets at extremely low limits when looking through the current matchups, Top 5s, and Top 10s.

0.25 unit:
LaJoie - Top 10 +290 (Bovada)
Allmendinger - Top 10 +325 (Bovada)

0.125 unit:
Bowman -115 over Briscoe (Bovada)
Ragan +1000 - Top 5 (BetUS)

Spire put a lot of money into their team this offseason and LaJoie's best tracks are superspeedways.
Allmendinger does better at superspeedways than you realize.
Ragan has to make the field so it is risky to bet him before the Twin races. He is in RFK's 3rd car so speed should not be an issue assuming he races in.

Hopefully, they will raise limits before the Twin races on Thursday and qualifying on Wednesday.
Bowman, Byron, and Larson are the most likely cars to set on the pole so I would assume their odds will be worse. I plan to bet more on Bowman and fade both Byron and Larson in matchups, but not until after the Twin races and practice. Probably gonna bet on Bubba against both Byron and Larson.

Also looking to fade Briscoe, Reddick, and Jones and bet on Kyle Busch.

Bowman has been on pole 6 of last 7 Daytona 500s and 8 of last 9 for Hendrick.

 

[He Hate Me]

Bowman has been on pole 6 of last 7 Daytona 500s and 8 of last 9 for Hendrick.

Yeah, Bovada had some qualifying matchups but only one had a Hendrick car and it was -150 or something.

If you wanna bet on a Hendrick car for the race, I would do it now. If you want to fade them, I would wait.

Bowman is the only Hendrick driver who interests me.

 

[CPA-hole]

Larson and Hamlin both at +400 to win the pole at a few places. I don't see any h2hs anywhere for qualifying.

 

[CPA-hole]

Toyotas may get a slight bump just because they have 2 extra drivers (3 if JJ qualifies) that could help with pits and being in the pack pushing.

 

[He Hate Me]

Larson and Hamlin both at +400 to win the pole at a few places. I don't see any h2hs anywhere for qualifying.

Bovada has them now. Hendrick the Top 4.


8:15 PM

Qualifying Winner​

• Alex Bowman - Q+250
• Kyle Larson - Q+450
• William Byron - Q+600
• Chase Elliott - Q+800

 

[He Hate Me]

It looks like there will not be any more racing in Daytona until Monday. Still waiting on the limits to be raised.

Also, if they race on Monday, which seems almost certain, the race may be more calm with fewer wrecks. This just seems to be the case for Monday races.

I did bet these:

Xfinity:
$20 on Retzlaff to win +4000 (BetUS)

Cup:

0.25 units:
Ragan to finish on lead lap +110 Bovada)
Ragan Top 10 +275 (Bovada)
Stenhouse to lead a lap -105 (Bovada)
Briscoe to lead a lap +135 (Bovada)
Burton to lead a lap +140 (Bovada)

$25 McDowell to win +2500 (Bovada) This was +4000 before the Twin races and qualifying so I should have bet it earlier.

The 0.25 unit adds for the Cup race above are at the current limit. I will add to Stenhouse to lead a lap and Briscoe to lead a lap when/if the limits are raised.

Gonna add some matchups when the limits are raised, but matchups are hard to bet at Daytona.

 

[CPA-hole]

Swore I wouldn't play H2Hs Sr Daytona. You have to figure at least 15 or so cars won't finish the race. Such a crapshoot. But there was a McDowell -135 over Berry earlier in the week. I had to to play it. It is like -180 now.

 

[He Hate Me]

Swore I wouldn't play H2Hs Sr Daytona. You have to figure at least 15 or so cars won't finish the race. Such a crapshoot. But there was a McDowell -135 over Berry earlier in the week. I had to to play it. It is like -180 now.

Yeah, the McDowell odds moved more than anyone else.

I am considering Briscoe -130 versus Berry. I kinda draw the line at -130 but at Daytona I really don't like betting anything over -120.

 

[He Hate Me]

I added these:

0.5 unit:
McDowell -115 over Reddick (Bovada)
Suarez -115 over Preece (BAS)

0.25 unit:
Stenhouse to lead a lap -105 (Bovada) I now have 0.5 units on this.
Truex -115 over Reddick (Bovada)
Suarez -115 over Hocevar (Bovada)
McDowell even over Stenhouse (Bovada)

 

[CPA-hole]

Postponed until 4:00 tomorrow.

 

[He Hate Me]

BM put up their matchups. I added these:

0.75 unit:
Bubba -105 over Larson (BM) I now have 1 unit at +110 and -105
Truex +100 over Reddick (BM) I now have 1 unit at -115 and +100

0.5 unit:
Suarez -115 over Preece (BAS) I now have 1 unit on this.

 

[He Hate Me]

Gonna put everything I have bet so far in one place so I can see what I have. Bovada and BetUS still have low limits. BM and BAS do not.

Xfinity:

$20 on Retzlaff to win +4000 (BetUS)

Cup:

1 unit:
Bubba +110 & -105 over Larson (BetUS & BM) total at -101
Truex +100 & -115 over Reddick (BM & Bovada) total at -104
Suarez -115 over Preece (BAS)

0.5 unit:
McDowell -115 over Reddick (Bovada)
Stenhouse to lead a lap -105 (Bovada)

0.25 units:
Ragan to finish on lead lap +110 (Bovada)
Ragan Top 10 +275 (Bovada)
Briscoe to lead a lap +135 (Bovada)
Burton to lead a lap +140 (Bovada)
LaJoie - Top 10 +290 (Bovada)
Allmendinger - Top 10 +325 (Bovada)
Suarez -115 over Hocevar (Bovada)
McDowell even over Stenhouse (Bovada)

0.125 unit:
Bowman -115 over Briscoe (Bovada)
Ragan +1000 - Top 5 (BetUS)
Bubba +115 over Byron (BetUS)

$25 McDowell to win +2500 (Bovada)

 

[He Hate Me]

There were 13 different lap leaders in the 2021 and 2022 Daytona 500s
There were 21 in the 2023 Daytona 500 last year and 17 in the August 2023 and 19 in the August 2022 race in Daytona which is only 400 miles.

It seems that the most recent races have more lap leaders as the new car is more drivable/stable and over 1/2 of the field has a good shot of lead a lap in tomorrow's 500 mile Daytona race which makes this range of drivers interesting bets to lead a lap:

• Erik Jones-120
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr.-105
• Austin Dillon EVEN
• Ross Chastain EVEN
• Daniel Suarez+125
• Chase Briscoe+135
• Harrison Burton+140
• AJ Allmendinger+150

I think Jones, Stenhouse, Chastain, Suarez, Briscoe, and Burton will try to push to the front whenever possible. Dillon and Allmendinger are more likely to ride until the end.

Suarez, Burton, and Jones are starting 11-13 so they have a decent chance of leading a lap in the first stage.

Also, Monday races seem to be more tame so I do not know how this will effect the number of lap leaders. Some people may be happy to ride around more.

 

[He Hate Me]

People are betting on Bell for some reason. I added this for now and may add to it if it moves more:

0.5 unit
Truex +105 over Bell (BAS and BetUS)

I don't know how much I will add tomorrow unless the race starts after 5:00 or so.

 

[twinkie13]

GL

 

[He Hate Me]

Gonna put everything I have bet so far in one place so I can see what I have. Bovada and BetUS still have low limits. BM and BAS do not.

Xfinity:

$20 on Retzlaff to win +4000 (BetUS)

Cup:

1 unit:
Bubba +110 & -105 over Larson (BetUS & BM) total at -101
Truex +100 & -115 over Reddick (BM & Bovada) total at -104
Suarez -115 over Preece (BAS)

0.5 unit:
McDowell -115 over Reddick (Bovada)
Stenhouse to lead a lap -105 (Bovada)

0.25 units:
Ragan to finish on lead lap +110 (Bovada)
Ragan Top 10 +275 (Bovada)
Briscoe to lead a lap +135 (Bovada)
Burton to lead a lap +140 (Bovada)
LaJoie - Top 10 +290 (Bovada)
Allmendinger - Top 10 +325 (Bovada)
Suarez -115 over Hocevar (Bovada)
McDowell even over Stenhouse (Bovada)

0.125 unit:
Bowman -115 over Briscoe (Bovada)
Ragan +1000 - Top 5 (BetUS)
Bubba +115 over Byron (BetUS)

$25 McDowell to win +2500 (Bovada)

Cup
+0.09 units

My Top 10 bets saved me.
Bovada never raised their limits, at least for me.
The only reason I could even bet a unit on a single bet was due to BAS and BM.
If that continues, I will not be able to bet more this year as planned.

 

[He Hate Me]

2024:

Xfinity -0.1 units
Cup - 1.64 units

 

[He Hate Me]

I have bet these for Atlanta:

0.50 units:
Haley Top 10 +350 (Bovada)
LaJoie Top 10 +180 (BetUS)
Briscoe -115 over Gragson (BetUS)
Cindric -115 over Bowman (BetUS)

0.25 units:
Jones Top Toyota +700 (Bovada)
Logano to win pole +750 (BetUS)
Briscoe to win pole +2000 (BetUS)

waiting to bet these after qualifying as I think the odds may move in my favor:

Chastain -115 over Reddick
Jones -115 over Bowman
Haley -115 over Burton
Lajoie -115 over Stenhouse

 

[He Hate Me]

Atlanta Xfinity bets:

0.5 unit:
Klingerman -115 over Sammy Smith (BetUS)
Klingerman -125 over Love (BetUS)
Ryan Truex -115 over SVG (BetUS)

Was gonna bet Truex to win and Mayer to win his group, but they were taken down before I could be them.

 

[He Hate Me]

I added these for the Xfinity race later today:

1 unit:
Mayer -115 over Custer (BetUS)
Mayer -110 over Creed (BetUS)
Mayer -130 over Chandler Smith (BetUS)
Truex -130 over Brandon Jones (BetUS)

0.5 unit:
Klingerman +120 over Love (BetUS) I now have 1 unit on this at +120 and -125
Klingerman -125 over Sammy Smith (Bovada) I now have 1 unit on this at -112 and -125
Mayer to win Group B over Creed, Sammy Smith, Chandler Smith +250 (Bovada)

Truex Top 5 +275 (Bovada)

 

[He Hate Me]

Added for the Xfinity race. Bovada's limits this year are laughable.

0.5 unit:
Truex +115 over Love (Bovada)

 

[He Hate Me]

I added these for the Xfinity race later today:

1 unit:
Mayer -115 over Custer (BetUS)
Mayer -110 over Creed (BetUS)
Mayer -130 over Chandler Smith (BetUS)
Truex -130 over Brandon Jones (BetUS)

0.5 unit:
Klingerman +120 over Love (BetUS) I now have 1 unit on this at +120 and -125
Klingerman -125 over Sammy Smith (Bovada) I now have 1 unit on this at -112 and -125
Mayer to win Group B over Creed, Sammy Smith, Chandler Smith +250 (Bovada)

Truex Top 5 +275 (Bovada)

What a fuck job that was. Called everything right except betting against Love and I lost 3 units.

Atlanta
Xfinity -3.08 units.

 

[B.A.R.]

Cup
+0.09 units

My Top 10 bets saved me.
Bovada never raised their limits, at least for me.
The only reason I could even bet a unit on a single bet was due to BAS and BM.
If that continues, I will not be able to bet more this year as planned.

Interesting finding the markets as I looked this morning.

I won 25 bucks on a Mayer matchup :shrug:

 

[He Hate Me]

Interesting finding the markets as I looked this morning.

I won 25 bucks on a Mayer matchup :shrug:

Yeah, it is a struggle for me to get a decent amount on anything with the limits at Bovada and BetUS so far this year.

 

[He Hate Me]

I was up over 6 units until Seig ran out of gas and did not make it off of the track with 2 laps to go.

 

[B.A.R.]

That's brutal man

 

[B.A.R.]

Appreciate ya posting though.

I'll keep checking and tail a few when possible.

 

[He Hate Me]

I added these:

1 unit:
Cindric Top 10 +175 (Bovada)
McDowell Top 10 +125 (Bovada)
Haley +110 over Burton (BetUS)
Lajoie -115 over Stenhouse (BetUS)
Jones +110 over Bowman (BetUS)

0.5 unit:
Haley Top 10 +550 (BetUS)
LaJoie Top 10 +250 (Bovada)
Briscoe -115 over Gragson (BetUS) I now have 1 unit on this.
Cindric -115 over Bowman (BetUS) I now have 1 unit on this.
Byron -115 over Bell (Bovada)
Chastain -115 over Bubba (Bovada)
Chastain -115 over Reddick (BetUS)
Cindric +100 over Bubba (Bovada)
McDowell -115 over Reddick (Bovada)

0.25 unit:
Jones Top Toyota +900 (Bovada)

Gonna bet more on Chastain over Bubba, Chastain over Reddick, and Byron over Bell but gonna wait to see if BM has those matchups.

Gonna bet on Chase Elliott over Bell but gonna wait to see if the lines move in my favor.

I lost value betting on Haley and LeJoie Top 10s early and Jones Top Toyota but I added to them.

Gonna post all of my bets in the next post so I know what I have when the BM and BAS lines come out tomorrow.

I have already lost 0.5 units in qualifying. Logano qualified 2nd.

 

[He Hate Me]

Atlanta - Cup

1 unit:
Briscoe -115 over Gragson (BetUS)
Cindric -115 over Bowman (BetUS)
Haley +110 over Burton (BetUS)
Lajoie -115 over Stenhouse (BetUS)
Jones +110 over Bowman (BetUS)
Haley Top 10 +450 (BetUS & Bovada)
LaJoie Top 10 +215 (Bovada & BetUS)
Cindric Top 10 +175 (Bovada)
McDowell Top 10 +125 (Bovada)

0.5 unit:
Byron -115 over Bell (Bovada)
Chastain -115 over Bubba (Bovada)
Chastain -115 over Reddick (BetUS)
Cindric +100 over Bubba (Bovada)
McDowell -115 over Reddick (Bovada)
Jones Top Toyota +800 (Bovada)

0.25 units:
Logano to win pole +750 (BetUS)
Briscoe to win pole +2000 (BetUS)

 

[He Hate Me]

Added:

1 unit:
Chastain -112 over Bubba

Unless the BM lines move a lot, that will be all that I like there.

 

[He Hate Me]

Added these:

2 units:
Elliott -115 over Bell (BetUS & BAS)

1 unit:
Cindric -115 over Bowman (BAS)
Haley -115 over Burton (BAS)
Chastain -115 over Reddick (BAS)

0.5 unit:
Jones to win Group D +325 over Reddick, Buescher, Bowman (Bovada)

Still waiting for Bovada to raise their limits. I kinda think they are fucking with me.

 

[He Hate Me]

Atlanta - Cup (Summary)

2 unit:
Elliott -115 over Bell (BetUS & BAS)
Cindric -115 over Bowman (BetUS & BAS)
Haley +110 & -115 over Burton (BetUS & BAS)
Chastain -115 & -112 over Bubba (Bovada & BM) = -108

1.5 unit:
Chastain -115 over Reddick (BetUS & BAS)

1 unit:
Briscoe -115 over Gragson (BetUS)
Lajoie -115 over Stenhouse (BetUS)
Jones +110 over Bowman (BetUS)
Haley Top 10 +450 (BetUS & Bovada)
LaJoie Top 10 +215 (Bovada & BetUS)
Cindric Top 10 +175 (Bovada)
McDowell Top 10 +125 (Bovada)

0.5 unit:
Byron -115 over Bell (Bovada)
Cindric +100 over Bubba (Bovada)
McDowell -115 over Reddick (Bovada)
Jones Top Toyota +800 (Bovada)
Jones to win Group D +325 over Reddick, Buescher, Bowman (Bovada)

0.25 units:
Logano to win pole +750 (BetUS)
Briscoe to win pole +2000 (BetUS)